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LFB Revenue Estimates Released

By John Forester | January 30, 2019

From The Wheeler Report . . .

The Legislative Fiscal Bureau has released general fund revenue and expenditure projections for the Legislature.  According to the memo, LFB expects a gross balance of $691.5 million and a net balance (gross balance – $75.0 million required statutory balance) of $616.5 million. The memo says their analysis shows over a three-year period, aggregate general fund tax collections are $282.0 million lower than expected in the November 20 DOA estimates (-$142.1 million in 2018-19, -$45 million in 2019-20, and -$94.6 million in 2020-21).

The memo highlights the some of the main differences between the DOA memo and their estimates:

LFB expects that the $82.6 million transfer to the budget stabilization fund won’t happen for two reasons. The first reason is that the tax estimate for 2018-19 is lower than the DOA memo, which would reduce the amount available for a potential transfer.  The second reason pertains to legislation passed at the end of the year that says that any increased tax collections under the Wayfair decision must be excluded from the transfer for stabilization funds.  Those two issues combined bring the 2018-19 tax estimate below the amount estimated by the 2017-19 budget, and therefore eliminate the transfer requirement.

The increased transfers to the general fund exceed those estimates in the Nov. 20 report primarily because of two reasons. The Department of Health Services is estimated to lapse $212.7 million GPR to the general fund, which is $63.7 million more than anticipated by the Nov. 20 memo. The Department of Workforce Development Fast Forward unencumbered amount is estimated at $21.7 million.

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