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Latest Marquette Law Poll: Dead Heat
By Wisconsin School Administrators Alliance staff | October 16, 2014
From WisPolitics…
The latest Marquette University Law School Poll has Gov. Scott Walker and Dem rival Mary Burke tied among likely voters.
Forty-seven percent of likely voters backed each candidate two weeks after the poll had Walker up 50-45.
The poll also found a tie in the AG’s race, where Dem Susan Happ and Republican Brad Schimel were each backed by 42 percent of likely voters surveyed. Last time, Schimel had a 41-39 edge.
Poll director Charles Franklin said there has been a series of subtle shifts in the poll compared to the one conducted two weeks ago. One of the biggest, he said, was the movement among independents.
Partisans are locked in to their party’s candidate with 96 percent of Republicans backing Walker and 94 percent of Dems supporting Burke.
But Burke edged Walker among independents in this poll 45-44 after he led 53-40 among those voters two weeks ago.
“This is where the volatility is,” Franklin said.
In addition to independents swinging toward Burke, more of them also indicated they plan to vote in November compared to those who said the same two weeks ago.
Among partisans, 82 percent of Republicans and 80 percent of Dems say they are likely to vote. That was 80 percent and 77 percent, respectively, two weeks ago.
Among independents, 80 percent said they’re likely to vote, compared to 67 percent two weeks ago.
Franklin said if those numbers hold, it would suggest a turnout of about 2.6 million voters, just eclipsing the number that turned out for the 2012 recall election.
Still, that would be significantly higher than any other non-presidential election in Wisconsin over the past 60 years. A GAB tally of turnout going back to 1948 shows the highest turnout for a mid-term election was 2.17 million in 2010.
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