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New Poll Confirms Guv Race is Tight
By Wisconsin School Administrators Alliance staff | September 18, 2014
From WisPolitics.com …
Gov. Scott Walker and rival Mary Burke were still close in the latest Marquette University Law School Poll, though the latest survey found a shift as Republicans were more excited to vote than their Dem counterparts.
The poll found Walker and Burke tied at 46 percent apiece among registered voters. Among likely voters, Walker had the edge 49-46.
In last month’s poll, 47.5 percent of registered voters backed Walker, while 44.1 percent favored Burke, while among likely voters it was 48.6 percent for Burke and 46.5 percent for Walker.
Poll director Charles Franklin said the shift in enthusiasm could be attributed to several possibilities.
Eighty percent of Republicans in the most recent poll said they are certain to vote in November, compared to 73 percent of Dems and 69 percent of independents. In August, 82 percent of Dems said the same, while 77 percent of Republicans and 68 percent of independents were certain to vote.
Franklin noted Walker and Republicans have been pushing the GOP base to get engaged in this election since the last results were released.
“Likely voters have seen a real blossoming of Republican excitement, and that has helped Walker among likely voters,” Franklin said.
The sample also was more Republican than the last one. Among registered voters, 29 percent said they were Republicans, 28 percent said they were Dems and 41 percent identified as independents. That is the first time in 24 Marquette Law School Polls that Republicans had an edge among registered voters.
Among likely voters, Republicans had a 32-28 advantage over Democrats, with 38 percent saying they were independents. It was the fourth time Republicans had an edge among likely voters in the poll.
In August, Dems had a 4-point advantage among registered voters and 6 points among likely voters.
Franklin said that could be attributed to either an outlier survey or to a true shift among the electorate. He noted a growth in GOP partisanship across all geographic regions and other factors that make it less likely the results were an outlier.
Franklin said the next poll will help demonstrate if the shift in enthusiasm was a fluke or real movement in the poll. He did not say how many more polls would be conducted between now and the election, but said the surveys would start to focus more on likely voters with Nov. 4 drawing near.
See Milwaukee Journal Sentinel Coverage here.
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