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Marquette Poll: Clinton Lead Widens; Feingold Lead Shrinks
By Wisconsin School Administrators Alliance staff | October 13, 2016
From WisPolitics.com …
The latest Marquette University Law School shows the first signs of the impact from Donald Trump’s 2005 videotape on the presidential race in Wisconsin.
There are also indications U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson’s ads have improved his image among voters, poll director Charles Franklin said today.
In the presidential race, Hillary Clinton was backed by 44 percent of likely voters, while Trump was supported by 37 percent. Libertarian Gary Johnson was at 9 percent, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein was at 3 percent.
In a four-way match up three weeks ago, Clinton had a 41-38 edge with Johnson at 11 percent and Stein at 2.
The poll, conducted Thursday through Sunday, is the first publicly released survey in Wisconsin to capture some of the fallout after a 2005 videotape of Trump making vulgar comments about women was released Friday.
There also was a dramatic shift in the numbers over the course of the poll. Franklin said 412 of the interviews were conducted Thursday before the video was released, 230 were done Friday, as the Trump video news broke, and 236 were conducted Saturday and Sunday.
Among likely voters, Trump was backed by 41 percent of respondents in the Thursday surveys, compared to 40 for Clinton. By Friday, it was 44-38 for Clinton. On Saturday and Sunday, it was 49-30 for Clinton.
The trend continued across various demographics. For example:
*Clinton led by 9 points among likely female voters on Thursday, 27 percent Friday, and 33 percent on Saturday and Sunday.
*Among men, Trump’s edge bounced from 12 points Thursday and 16 points Friday to 40 percent for Clinton and 39 percent for the GOP nominee on Saturday and Sunday.
Franklin cautioned the margin of error for the calls ranged from plus or minus 6 points on Thursday to 7.8 points for the Saturday and Sunday results. He also noted while the daily results provide a picture of the impact from the tape’s release, the survey was out of the field before the second presidential debate Sunday night and did not measure how Trump’s performance in St. Louis may have impacted the numbers going forward.
“It’s entirely possible that short-term blips then get reversed and come back,” Franklin said.
He also noted the poll came out of the field before Trump made a series of critical comments toward House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Janesville, and other Republicans.
“Those are things that are just developing,” Franklin said.
— The poll also found a tightening Senate race.
Forty-six percent of likely voters backed Dem Russ Feingold, while 44 percent supported Johnson, R-Oshkosh, and 4 percent backed Libertarian Phil Anderson.
Three weeks ago, Feingold had a 44-39 edge with Anderson at 7 percent.
Johnson has consistently struggled with a quarter to a third of voters not having an opinion of him. But his favorable numbers ticked up in the latest survey.
Forty-three percent viewed him favorably, while 37 percent did not and 20 percent said they hadn’t heard enough about him or didn’t have an opinion. In September, his split was 35-39 with 26 percent expressing no opinion.
Feingold’s numbers dipped slightly. Forty-five percent had a favorable impression of him, while 40 percent did not and 15 percent expressed no opinion. In September, that split was 48-32 with 19 percent expression no opinion.
Forty-nine percent said Johnson is honest, while 33 percent said he is not. For Feingold, that was 52-36.
And 45 percent said Johnson cares about people like them, while 41 percent said he does not. For Feingold, it was 52-36.
Franklin noted Johnson had been on TV with several positive bio spots. Meanwhile, he launched an ad last week accusing Feingold of breaking a 1992 pledge to raise most of his money in-state, and the Reform Wisconsin Fund has been on the air attacking Feingold on late-term abortions.
Franklin said Johnson’s favorable rating going up 8 points, while his unfavorable rating dropping 2 helps explain how the race went from a 5-point margin to a 2-point contest.
“That don’t-know rate really wasn’t moving for him. It now has moved,” Franklin said.
He added, “This now looks like a perfectly understandable, highly polarized partisan race.”
See Milwaukee Journal Sentinel News Coverage below:
Marquette poll: Feingold narrowly leads Johnson
Poll Charts Damage of Tape to Trump in Wisconsin
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