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Walker Opens Up 7-Point Lead
By Wisconsin School Administrators Alliance staff | October 30, 2014
From WisPolitics:
Gov. Scott Walker opened up a 7-point lead on Dem rival Mary Burke in the latest Marquette University Law School Poll.
The survey found 50 percent of likely voters backed Walker, while 43 percent supported Burke. That’s a change from two weeks ago, when the two were tied at 47-apiece among likely voters.
Among registered voters, it was Walker 46, Burke 45. Poll director Charles Franklin said the contrast in the numbers for likely voters vs. registered voters underscores how important turnout is with more Walker voters are saying they’re likely to turn out Tuesday than Burke voters.
“If more people show up, this looks like a very close election,” he said.
Franklin also said several factors accounted for the shift in Walker’s favor compared to the results from two weeks ago.
One, there was an uptick in the number of Republican voters who say they will for sure turn out next week. It was 93 percent in this survey, compared to 82 percent in the last one. Franklin said while there is reason to be skeptical 93 percent of Republicans will turn out on Election Day, that number matches the final Marquette Law poll before the 2012 recall election.
Eighty-two percent of Dems and 75 percent of independents said they plan to turn out. Two weeks ago, 80 percent of Dems and independents planned to show up.
Two, independents swung back in Walker’s direction. Likely independent voters backed Walker 52-37; two weeks ago, 45 percent backed Burke, compared to 44 percent for Walker.
Finally, the gender gap re-emerged for both candidates, with Walker taking a much larger advantage among male voters than Burke has with women. Walker led among likely male voters 58-36, while Burke had the edge with likely female voters 49-43.
The average gender gap in the six Marquette polls since July has been a 52-42 lead among women for Burke and a 55-40 lead among men for Walker.
The poll also found slight upticks for Walker on several questions, while Burke’s favorability rating has dropped.
Fifty-two percent of likely voters approve of the job Walker is doing, while 46 percent disapprove. Two weeks ago, that was 50-48.
Walker was also viewed favorably by 51 percent of likely voters and and unfavorably by 46 percent.
Burke, meanwhile, was viewed favorably by 39 percent of likely voters and unfavorably by 49 percent. Two weeks ago, it was 44-44.
Also, 54 percent of likely voters say the state is on the right track, while 42 percent said it was on the wrong track. Asked about “all the changes in state government” the last few years, 53 percent of likely voters said they have made things better, while 40 percent said they’ve made things worse.
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See Milwaukee Journal Sentinel coverage here.
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